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The NFL scriptwriters have done it again. This was supposed to be a rebuilding or retooling year for the 49ers. They went 6-11 last year, succumbing to injuries and the all-too-familiar Super Bowl loser hangover, as they were mentally drained from another heartbreaking finish. They lost over a third of their starters in one of the biggest offseason exoduses in NFL history after giving Brock Purdy a five-year deal worth $265 million.

Nobody would have blamed them for hovering around .500 this year. Purdy missed eight games with turf toe. Brandon Aiyuk has not played. George Kittle missed a handful of games, and Nick Bosa and Fred Warner suffered season-ending injuries (well, maybe not for Warner).

Instead of folding, the 49ers can earn the top seed in the NFC with a win on Saturday against the Seahawks. Kyle Shanahan is in his bag and a contender for NFL coach of the year. Christian McCaffrey could win Offensive Player of the Year and Comeback Player of the Year. And perhaps most importantly, Purdy is playing the best football of his career.

NFL Week 18 Power Rankings: Kyle Shanahan coaching the season of his life as 49ers keep winning without stars
Pete Prisco
NFL Week 18 Power Rankings: Kyle Shanahan coaching the season of his life as 49ers keep winning without stars

The script around Purdy's career is just brilliant. The character arc is fascinating, and the narratives have gone something like this:

  • 2022: Holy crap, Mr. Irrelevant is good!
  • 2023: I can't believe he's an MVP candidate BUT he's also a game manager and a YAC merchant.
  • 2024: See, I told you he was only a game manager.
  • 2025: Holy crap, he's actually really, really good (but still struggles like all great players do).

The debates (and scrutiny) around Purdy have been about as polarizing as those around Jalen Hurts, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert in recent years. But Sunday night was something of a mic drop (with a Dougie). It was a critic silencer, a debate ender.

There have been two sides to the Purdy "game manager" narrative in recent years. Either you thought he was only good because of an all-world supporting cast and Shanahan's system. Or you thought he excelled in Shanahan's system because he was an elite processor with accurate, anticipatory throws who could occasionally put the team on his back when needed.

I've been on the fence at times and a Purdy believer on other occasions, but I think these sides can come together and hash out what Purdy is, and what he is not.

Purdy is not a game manager

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Brock Purdy
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Purdy is the first quarterback in 49ers history (one with a few decent quarterbacks!) with at least five total touchdowns in back-to-back games. All of a sudden, it doesn't seem so undeserved that he is the NFL's all-time leader in passer rating (104.8) among quarterbacks with 1,000-plus attempts. It's actually pretty legit that he leads the NFL in EPA per dropback (0.21) since he was the last pick of the 2022 NFL Draft. Sure, Shanahan was riding on cloud nine Sunday night, but this is not the way someone talks about a game manager.

"I thought Brock had a hell of a game, again," Shanahan said after the win. "Brock's been playing his ass off, made some huge plays in this game, kept some drives alive with his legs, made some off-schedule plays, and was an assassin out there throughout the whole day."

I never thought I'd hear someone call Purdy an "assassin," but I was in agreement as my jaw dropped to the floor following his touchdown pass to Kyle Juszczyk against the Bears.

Purdy missed eight games with turf toe this year, but he still has enough plays to qualify on the NFL's passing leaderboards. His ranks are astounding. He's second in EPA per dropback (0.24), behind Drake Maye (0.27), and he leads the NFL in success rate (56%).

The 49ers are 6-0 since he returned from injury, and they lead the NFL in points per game (35.7), points per drive (3.39) and third-down conversion percentage (59%) during that span. As you can imagine, Purdy (71% completion rate, 19 total touchdowns, 111.9 passer rating in the past six games) has a lot to do with it.

It's an incredible rebound for a player who was understandably doubted in the past year and a half as he struggled to put the 49ers on his back while injuries and adversity mounted. What a difference a month makes in how an athlete can be perceived. What we are seeing now is simply a really good quarterback playing the best football of his career.

He's doing everything the detractors said he couldn't do. He's elevating a team when the deck is stacked against him. The 49ers have a really bad defense (last in the NFL in sacks and 26th in defensive EPA). They are undermanned (fourth-most games missed due to injury this season). Yet Purdy is coming up clutch, airing it out, extending plays despite all of that, and doing it with bravado.

Purdy can win without a superstar supporting cast

It's understandable why Purdy was a polarizing figure in 2023. He nearly won MVP while leading the NFL in YAC per completion. He was a play away from winning a Super Bowl. Yet how much of it was because of Purdy? McCaffrey, Kittle, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel could take any screen pass to the house.

Purdy entered the season with a 10-11 career record when any of his old "big five" did not play (that's McCaffrey, Aiyuk, Samuel, Kittle and Trent Williams). Obviously, the band broke up, yet Purdy has still answered a lot of questions this year by winning seven of his eight starts.

Only 37% of his passes have gone to his old bandmates this year (McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk and Samuel), compared with 78% in 2023.

Purdy's percentage of attempts to McCaffrey, Kittle, Aiyuk or Samuel

2022

74%

2023

78%

2024

49%

2025

37%

Sunday night was one of the biggest statements of Purdy's career. He put the team on his back and delivered a five-touchdown performance without perhaps the best left tackle (Williams), tight end (Kittle), pass rusher (Bosa) and linebacker (Warner) in the league. 

Jauan Jennings, Ricky Pearsall and Jake Tonges have proved to be solid options in the 49ers' revamped arsenal, but they are still not in the same tier as Purdy's old castmates.

Purdy can elevate in the clutch without the perfect game script

Not too long ago, the 49ers were looked at as a team that couldn't play from behind, for obvious reasons. Shanahan's quarterbacks have looked like MVPs playing with the right game script. San Francisco's run game would dominate with Shanahan's zone-blocking scheme, and his quarterbacks would thrive with play-action, misdirection, quick passes and screens. When they had to play from behind late in games and air it out, things got wonky.

Prior to their comeback in the 2023 playoffs against the Packers, the 49ers had been 0-31 under Shanahan when trailing by at least five points entering the fourth quarter. Then Purdy led them to a big comeback there and a 17-point comeback in the NFC championship game against the Lions. Those were among the crowning achievements of Purdy's career, but they started to feel more like a fluke after 2024.

Purdy entered this season with nine touchdown passes and 15 interceptions in his career when tied or trailing in the second half. The 49ers converted on only 3 of 15 game-tying or go-ahead drive chances in the fourth quarter or overtime last season with Purdy under center. He consistently fell short in the clutch with his supporting cast crumbling around him.

So far this year, he's converted on 3 of 6 drives in those late, close situations, including delivering this game-winner to Jennings on Sunday night.

Purdy is not a 'YAC merchant'

I'll admit I'd never heard the term "YAC merchant" before critics used it to detract from Purdy's MVP case in 2023. He's come a long way from "it's easy to play quarterback when every screen pass gets taken to the house."

Purdy is averaging 4.5 yards after catch per completion this year, the third-lowest rate in the NFL. He had the highest average just two years ago (6.6).

Purdy's career yards after catch per completion



NFL Rank

2022

6.2

Third-most

2023

6.6

Most

2024

5.5

14th

2025

4.5

Third-fewest

Purdy is one of the reasons the 49ers are thriving without such an explosive offense. He is turning in a historic season in terms of moving the chains, and he's doing it without YAC. He leads the NFL in the percentage of attempts going for first downs on all throws (48%), third- and fourth-down passes (63%) and third-and-long throws (54%). Those are all the highest rates by any quarterback in a season in the past 35 years.

Nobody comes close in terms of his effectiveness on critical downs without the help of YAC. He is by far the most efficient quarterback in the NFL on third and fourth down this year (0.77 EPA per play) despite averaging an NFL-low 2.7 YAC per completion on those plays. That's tied with Drew Brees (2011) for the most efficient quarterback play on those downs this century. 

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Purdy is the best chain mover in the NFL and he doesn't need YAC TruMedia Sports

Purdy is a fantasy MVP (and good off schedule)

All of it has added up to an explosion over the past three weeks. Purdy has racked up 116.0 fantasy points during that stretch, the most by a quarterback ever in the fantasy playoffs (for those who play in formats counting passing touchdowns as six points). He's totaled 13 touchdowns in that span, and he's been doing it with plays that are the exact opposite of a game manager.

He's extending plays with ease despite battling turf toe earlier this year. He leads the NFL in touchdowns (seven) and passer rating (140.8) with at least three seconds to throw during this three-week stretch.

Brock Purdy with 3+ seconds to throw


First 5 gamesPast 3 games

Completion percentage

49%

73%

Yards per attempt

5.4

9.2

TD-INT

1-6

7-0

Passer rating

36.8

140.8

It wasn't long ago that people were wondering if Mac Jones was going to "Wally Pipp" Purdy. Well, Purdy has reminded us why Shanahan dispelled that possibility. His mobility is the biggest thing that separates him from Garoppolo and Jones, who tasted success with Shanahan.

Purdy's athleticism in and out of the pocket is underrated and Joe Burrow-esque. Only 7.7% of the pressures against Purdy have resulted in sacks this season, the best rate by any quarterback in the NFL.

Cris Collinsworth's reaction to Purdy's touchdown on the NBC Sunday Night Football broadcast was sensational: "I mean, if this were Patrick Mahomes, we'd be screaming, 'Oh, Patrick Mahomes!' ... But that's the way it works, because he has made those kinds of plays all night long and just been carrying the 49ers."

Purdy has swag

The cherry on top of Purdy's recent success is his confidence. I don't remember him being a quarterback who lacked confidence, but I don't ever remember him showing this kind of swag. He's now breaking out the Dougie on touchdown celebrations. What's better than that, you ask? Stats that show his performance before and after breaking out the dance.

Purdy debuted the Dougie for the first time after a touchdown run against the Browns last month. He has 15 touchdowns, three turnovers and a 129.5 passer rating since that play, compared with eight touchdowns, eight turnovers and an 87.0 rating earlier this year.

George Kittle was among the 49ers who enjoyed the celebration when Purdy first used it. "I just -- he's really good at it," Kittle said. "And I was more just surprised. God forbid a white guy has a little bit of motion."

Purdy has helped reopen the 49ers' Super Bowl window

The vibes around the team after Purdy's Dougie are palpable. The energy is electric, and dare I say this could be a "team of destiny."

Going into the year, it was going to take a miracle for the 49ers to contend for a Super Bowl. A lot of people said the 49ers' Super Bowl window was closed this past offseason -- even Puka Nacua.

Thanks to Shanahan, McCaffrey and Purdy, the Super Bowl window is cracked open. There's no Mahomes on the other side of the bracket, the NFC is wide open, and the 49ers will clinch the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs with a win Saturday. If they win out through Super Bowl LX (which is at their home stadium), they will not have to play another game away from Levi's Stadium this season.

That's pretty much the 49ers' only formula for winning the Super Bowl, but the stars could be aligning. They need the energy from the crowd, and Purdy needs to keep playing like a superstar because the 49ers' offense has no margin for error. They have no pass rush after Bosa and their 2025 first-round pick, Mykel Williams, suffered season-ending injuries. They are last in the NFL in sacks (18.0), and no team has ever finished last in sacks and even reached a conference title game.

They are 26th in defensive efficiency this season (-3.77 EPA per game). The 2006 Colts are the only team since 2000 to finish with a mark that low and win the Super Bowl. They got defensive stud Bob Sanders back from injury for that playoff run. The 49ers are going to need Warner back for the NFC title game.

It's not going to be easy, but if Purdy keeps playing like this, it's possible.